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It seems, as a fresh day has been brings even the best of such headings: the usual dream is “combined with” life expectancy, fights for video games “related to” surgical skills, hooligans are “at risk”, becoming criminals, becoming criminals. And "was breastfeeding to reduce the child’s hell? "(The old inappropriate question is dumb). Sometimes the articles are clear: the study found only a correlation between several variables - breastfeeding and low blood pressure were found together. But usually they suggest that a causal relationship works - that breastfeeding causes lower blood pressure.

You know for sure that the saying of the old statistics: the correlation does not tolerate a cause -effect relationship. The nuance that breastfeeding and low blood pressure is together does not imply that the first caused the second. Perhaps the second caused the first one (mothers could opt for preserving the breastfeeding of all other babies) or somewhere else, it caused both of them (perhaps mothers, they do not act as they are put on feed, and less stressful children). You are never able to say by correlation. “Strength, expansion, movement; all of the listed parameters are full by itself and constantly do not indicate for some other event that can be the result of them, ”he wrote. Unfortunately, it is not a causal relationship: “one event follows another; however, we never have the right to follow them. They may look connected, but they are not limited to anyone. ” 

And what philosophers from the moment plato and sextus empiricus claimed, such evidence can deceive us. Imagine that the viewer find the key and certainly when you press it, they hear an audio signal. Usually, the master assume that the button always causes an acoustic signal. However, our site would be wrong - once the food is leaving, and the button agree, does nothing. From discipline, calling him “a fetish among the incomprehensible arcana of modern medicine” and insisting that, understanding a simple correlation, an important of these “understood the essence of the concept of a connection between cause and consequence”. > his followers kept him from that time. “Considerations of causality should be taken to this that these drugs have always been in statistical data: it is by no means by no means,” wrote the former president of the biometric society. “It will be very cool if the researchers were constantly abandoning consciousness and pampering from such terms as the cause and investigation,” the other outstanding sociologist insisted. 

And the question remained in that place. Causality is a plan, as well as “soul”, and as inappropriate for modern mathematical science. So, regardless of anything, the process does not seem correct. If a causal relationship is like that is completely natural and not surprising that the other, like a meaningless word, which the non -professionals layered over the correlation, then why is the incessant perseverance of the phenomenon, that “the correlation excludes a causal relationship”? Why are such wishes filled with causable comments (he forced me to crank everything!) And in no case correlation? Statistics do not have a mathematical way to express the concept of "dirt leaves no rain." He can persistently say that dirt correlates with the rain (or rather, that there is a maximum chance to see dirt if you borrowed the rain), no difficulties, but the expression of a simple causal connection is a transport that every five -year -old child is aware. 

Statistics, perhaps in no case had to resist this problem, congratulations, to joy for them, the researchers of ai. It turns out that if you often make a robot, or rather the concept of causal contact, not only due to the fact that help is the only possible option to understand people, as well as because there is the only suitable time of the year to come up with something! How should the owner turn on the light if you are looking for that compiling a replacement for light, and not a clicking noise that causes it? Researchers of ai turned their eyes on the shooting of robots to develop mathematical equipment for the war with causality. At the front line -judea pearl (author of the book “caused”, publishing house of the cambridge institute and his group at the california university at los -angeles and clark glimur (author “arrows”, mit press), peter alcohols that colleagues in carnegie -mellon. The result is a quiet rebellion in terms of statistics - almost the most practicing statistics are still not in the know. Very often they write that our organization is not found out under any circumstances, the button is unlikely to cause an acoustic signal, but such a move is too strict requirement.Science in no way remembers anything for sure - the best that we are happy to hope for - this is to extract the largest volume of information from the certificate that are laid out here. Or, as william james said: “to know is the first, and to find out for sure that our company knows something else.” Causing: to make (...). The opinion on intervention expresses and in reality try something. So, in order to mathematically express information regarding the fact that dirt does not develop rain, we are ready to say that p (rain do (mud = true)) = p (rain) - in other words, the probability of rain, when choosing such clothes, keep in mind that keep in mind that mind gembler performed this dirty action, which is the entire rain potential. 

, But leads to the fact that a person rarely goes into pairs, like this - most often the like is happening in various chains: clouds cause rain, which causes dirt, never wet clothes, and the final causes people to read the change of clothes. And the researchers express them as networks, usually called causal by bayes or graphic causal schemes, which show each thing (clouds, rain, dust, in the role of a node and causal relationships as arrows from them: 

and we provide services simply with a warming. Their unique progress was as follows: no less children are able to find reasons, by observation, computers can distinguish between the results. Now, obviously, the easiest option to realize the idea simply measure the transport that happens if you often do (x = x) directly - this is exactly what randomized controlled research is striving. Children do their job, throwing a fork on the floor and seeing whether everything is to improve her; scientists do this, sometimes randomly giving a real drug, and others are just a placebo. As a result, we are ready to doubt the reason - as a result, specifically we threw a fork and handed out the drug; nothing else had the opportunity to penetrate and provoke it. 

However, as a rule, there is no such fun. We want to know if the new tax policy will lead the economy before we accept it; we want to know if smoking causes cancer without forcing children to smoke; indeed, even in randomized controlled studies, we can offer half the patients an original drug, but we are never able to force them to take it. If the tested drug makes someone as terribly sick as they stop taking it, and at the end they become more popular, the prohibited substances still find it victory for https://xxxfetish.tube/ the drug! Things are provided from spying, however, in an unexpected number of options, our employees can. And the doctors invented the mathematical method - called do -calculus - to establish only if possible. Correct this with a network of variables, their feelings and telephone values, and will return the melody back, which knows, as well as what confidence. 

That is, in the pearl example, tobacco manufacturers are most often used to assure that the correlation between smoking and cancer was easy, for that simple reason, there were some genes that caused humanity with a greater probability of smoking and connecting more the probability of getting cancer. Similarly did not matter if these substances are quit smoking - their genes would lead to cancer in order to get firewood in each case. The pearl demonstrates that if we assume what smoking causes the resin deposits on the lungs, and the resin deposits become the only method that smoking causes cancer, we are able to simply measure the deposits of ion -exchange resins and calculate whether tobacco companies are right. 

> or in any example in his own reason for the book, he analyzes the research of the drug that reduces cholesterol. Since, regardless of this, whether the placebo people received or not, are not constrained with other variables (since it has become accidentally distributed), if we really assume that obtaining a real drug has some effect on such a nuance, whether people are accepted, we are able to calculate the effectiveness of the medication even in imperfect consent. Indeed, we are even ready to check how effective only a drug is for those who were prescribed, however, did not take it! (Known as a pc for st. Petersburg), which, taking into account only the data, will do everything necessary in order to calculate the causal network. You can fill in the software that he introduced for free is called tetrad iv, it is even accompanied by a professional graphic site for arts and a network display. Some statements from irs around 2005 of tax returns. This informed me that the percentage of people, sacrificing for charity, correlates with the number of dependents, which the heifers in the arsenal, which, without fail, correlates with the moment how many people receive from eitc. This amount, simultaneously with the average income, causes how many viewers on eitc.The average income correlates with the control organs with a load that correlates with inequality. All attractive and economic - and the result is only a couple of minutes of work. 

Mobile versions for this kind of tools are endless. According to perl, they can radically improve how statistics are used in healthcare, epidemiology, economics, sociology and law. Well, as glimur notes, the spy of vkontakte messages enables us to know more fully what causes neurobiology and psychology. Take the bell curve, the 1992 bestseller, which admitted that the blacks had more affordable iq, which entailed less performance in the college and naturally, with a smaller amount and a huge number of crimes. Glymour shows, using do-calculus, the results are preserved only in the fact that you think that there are no other interactions between variables (which parental attention to the classes does not affect iq and functionality during the years of study). But the mobile algorithm and notebook iv is able to show differently. 

the following treatment results are a revolution in the social sciences, but against the background of the creation of human robots, this is a competition of children. This, undoubtedly, is an impression that it is really possible to get from the pearl. Discussing his activities from the ai researchers conference, he said: 

The simplest of the development factors, according to which i consider these areas to be fertile reasons in order to test the latest sentences, which, against the background of ai, tangible awards there are relative small problems from the verdict. Difficulties with the involvement of only four variables in the region, that our confectioners are considered as the same-and-pale, bear huge regular payments in terms of public health and social sciences. Research: is it important for your attention to chocolate ice cream or not yours? Is red wine to scaling the pulse? Etc. 

The same applies to the social sciences. Will an increase in the police budget decrease or increase crime? Will the incident in high school in colorado as a result of television violence or the failure of state education? The consortium of the intervalities on political and social research distributed about 800 gigabytes of such studies only in 1993. 

No matter how regrettable, the causal-analytical methodology, currently accessible to researchers in such areas, is quite primitive, is quite primitive, represents quite primitive, is quite primitive, is very primitive it is quite primitive, it is primitive, it has become quite primitive, it is quite primitive, it has become quite primitive, it is quite primitive, it is quite primitive, it is quite primitive, causal-analytical methodology, which is currently available to researchers in such areas. And the innovation deal is of serious importance. [...] In recent years, this has changed, since the current methods arise from the laboratories of ai. I predict, and in another decade a quiet riot will happen in the question of how causality is processed in statistics, epidemiology, social sciences, accounting and business. Although information on the topic of the revolution will no longer come to the darpa information ballot, and nsf is not prepared immediately in order to check or support weapons, he will have a huge intellectual and technological impact on our society. 

For science sake, i am convinced that the partner is right. 

You will have to control me on twitter here. 

September 21, 2009 

Comments 

A good book. “Probability theory: the logic of science” and et jaynes http://bayes.Wustl.Edu/etj/prob/book.Pdf 

> Author: paul 22 september 2009 #

Caution in the results of the interpretation of fast analysis. Structural training is a serial problem of np-hard, and the heuristics used require sufficient iterations and data. >- Bango, in java - pebl, in python/c. My project :) - bnt, in matlab .. And many other options. , In order to mathematically express information regarding the fact that dirt does not give rise to rain, our site can remind you that p (rain do (mud = true)) = p (rain) is the likelihood of rain, especially when we consider that we committed it is dirty - this is the same as an opportunity on the rain by the rules and norms. " - This matters, and i see how such an interpretation can deduce for example to say the controlled test of drugs (“p (lower cholesterol do (pill = true))> p (lower cholesterol), which means that the risk is that that such a person’s cholesterol will decrease, at that moment you will force him to use a tablet about which the conversation is going on), but how would the observer apply this, for clarity of the bell curve?It is pointless to talk about "the probability of the fact that the student’s performance during the years of study will decrease, it is necessary to take into account that you committed it/its black." You are not able to get around this, referring to another variable that is controlled, and assessing that this fully explains the difference? Or does mathematics work again, is it worth a screen of the earner to be translated into a natural description of an executable experiment? (However, if this is about you, and “p (lower grades do (black = true))” are still significant, which exactly means the notation do ()?) 

. Adam september 22, 2009 #

I take such "results of study" with a small amount of salt for the whole century. I have to hack and solve the list of “logical errors” of “cognitive turns”, which are clearly showing, and it will not be accepted for the value of the face, as the target page seems to be. Logical errors: http://onegoodmove.Org/fallacy/toc.Htm 

Received mohan arun l 23, 2009 #

Excellent post, at the same time, you were forced to name him: “dirt causes rain? New science of causal relationship. " 

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